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Rent + market
After 7 years
Buy net worth
$152,547
Rent net worth
$178,839
Renting wins by $26,291 — investing the down payment in the market beats home equity at this horizon.
Buying doesn't break even within 7 years at these inputs.
Net worth over time
Monthly to own
$3,539
P&I + tax + ins + HOA + maint
Up-front cost
$54,000
Down + 2% closing
Rent differential
$1,139
Owner pays more/mo
The apples-to-apples framework
Owner net worth = equity after selling costs
Home value grows at your appreciation rate. Loan shrinks with each principal payment. Subtract 6% realtor + closing on sale. That's the number that actually goes back in your pocket.
Renter net worth = invested capital + monthly differential
The down payment + closing the renter didn't spend gets invested at your assumed market return. Any month where ownership costs more, that delta also gets invested.
Break-even is usually 5-8 years
Under 5 years, renting almost always wins because closing costs + selling costs eat owner returns. Past 10 years, buying usually wins unless you picked a bad market.